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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.